Investors appear eager to buy the hype in Novavax (NVAX). The stock recently surged on the initiation of the Phase 2 clinical trial for the RSV F vaccine in adults at least 60 years old. Despite being a known event and a repeat test after the Phase 3 failure, Novavax jumped $0.31 intraday. Between top-line data for this trial in Q3 and the ongoing Phase 3 trial for RSV for infants via maternal immunization, the risks are probably that the stock makes a run to the upside. The one caveat remains the cash position and the potential for the biotech to raise cash on any big rally. The key to the Q4 report and guidance will center around the cash balance. Novavax ended Q3 with $300 million on the balance sheet. With a projected Q4 cash burn of $50 million, the biotech forecast reducing the 2017 cash burn to something around $162.5 million. The market will focus on the updated cash burn after the November workforce reduction. Analysts forecast a quarterly loss of $0.23 for Q4 or roughly inline with the Q3 loss. The forecast is for a Q1 loss of $0.16 which is a big improvement with only a 30% reduction in the workforce. Of course, the focus is much more on the cash burn than the comparison to analyst estimates. In general, the stock probably offers the opportunity for a rally as results from the RSV trials provide big catalysts for the stock. Anybody holding Novavax into earnings? Disclosure: No position