Tilray Inc. $TLRY is undergoing a typical hype cycle. After IPOing at a price pf $17, it jumped quickly above $20 and then saw a parabolic rally that reached $300 in September. This was obviously not a sustainable drive EVEN if the overall economy remained bullish. But we see this all the time with new tech or new industries. Eventually, the mania dies down, and the realization that there is still a long ways to go before real growth settles in. (Crypto was one of those examples in 2017-2018). Here's the thing, as price trades around $70, I think there is still more downside back to the $20 area. The latest price action suggests bears are in charge. For example, the 1/31 candle was a bearish engulfing candle. It will take a break above $100 to convince me that TLRY has found a bottom. For now, there appears to be resistance at $85. I believe TLRY should be trading around the initial valuation, so even $20 is 15% higher than the $17 IPO price.TLRY Daily Chart(click to enlarge)Most likely we will see TRLY trade like the Gartner adoption curve seen below.- The market has passed the peak of inflated expectations and is entering the trough of disillusionment. - The next bullish wave will likely be slope of enlightenment, where TRLY as well as the marijuana industry solidifies best practices and network effects/efficiencies. - The thing is, we should not expect this bullish cycle to be as sharp as the initial mania. We will have to anticipate lower gains, although the beta or volatility should still be high relative to the major indices.