The seasonal pattern suggests ~200bn of liquidity provisions by the UST in February.The seasonal pattern suggests a massive draw-down in February due to tax refunds, which will add liquidity to the system – this added ~200bn in 2019. However, if the Treasury were to seek even higher cash balances on average it would tighten the liquidity available to the banking sector at some juncture. The USTs build-up of its crisis account in September definitely contributed to the repo market havoc at the time and forced the Fed to start repo operations and to buy T-bills. It may be that Mnuchin (and/or Trump) plans to try bringing about new money market havoc this year, perhaps in order to get Powell's Fed to implement even more POMO/QE and liquidity support ahead of the 2020 election. If Mnuchin were to seek a cash balance of 650bn on average, it could force the Fed to do ~250bn more bill purchases… The next refunding documents which may give more clues are scheduled for February 3.