Since this down move started, the first question we get when talking to investors is: “When is crude going to find a bottom in the market?” For that, we'll refer you to “How to Play a Bounce in Crude Oil (Hint: Not $USO).” Let's face it, if you're asking that question, then you want to play global macro discretionary trader for a day. Ignoring the metrics, the Bollinger Bands, the Average True Ranges — what are events telling us? Let's pretend we're a discretionary trader… Before we know where we're going, we need to know where we've been: We'll be the first to tell you past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, but how much has crude moved lower relative to other big down moves? We haven't seen crude oil below $40 since 2009. But it's not just the fact that it's at $40, it's that it's in the top 5 down moves of all time. Worst Crude Declines in History:'85-'86: -63%'90-'91: -51%'96-'98: -53%'08-'09: -68%'14-Today: -59% — Charlie Bilello, CMT (@MktOutperform) What's been the impact of the drop? If you have stock in Exxon or Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX), things don't look too optimistic, but for the average consumer, you actually have more spending power than you had last year without really knowing it. Since the oil's drop, America's 10 largest oil companies have lost a combined $200 billion in market cap, the Texas oil industry lost 8,300 jobs, and a handful of well publicized “commodity funds” have stopped trading or seen big losses (Andy Hall, Armajaro, etc). On the flip side, the energy department predicts this sort of drop will give U.S. consumers a combined $60 billion more spending power. How does supply and demand work? Well, given that our world increasingly runs on energy (from driving to manufacturing to charging iPhones) , and crude oil is responsible for at least 1/3rd of all energy... More