Bloomberg's Richard Breslow has a simple question for the greenback bears, "if the dollar is going down, when if not now?" If it’s so obvious that the dollar is going down, it’s worth asking, why isn’t it lower? At some point you have to wonder where economic analysis ends and the group think that comes with the comfort of crowds takes over. It seems rather remarkable to be labeled a contrarian when willing to take the other side of a trade that, if anything, looks to be going nowhere fast. And the cost of being short keeps adding up. The Dollar Index is holding above its one-year average price. With any number of technical support points between there and current levels, can it slice through them and go down anyway? Absolutely. But this is where the going gets awfully tough. The U.S. has a preference for a weaker currency. So does everyone else. They are just being more polite about it. Is there much doubt which direction the yuan would head if left to its own devices? Traders are concerned that the Fed will not only make good on its rate cut at the July meeting, but throw in some shock and awe. And to reflect that fact, a lot is priced into the market. It wouldn’t be some completely unexpected bolt from the blue. The consensus is for the smaller amount. But there are well-respected market analysts calling for, and expecting, something more meaningful. And they’re suggesting trades to position for it. If there is reason to be concerned what a rate cut would do to the dollar it shouldn’t stem from the fact that it happens at all. It’s rather, if there is an impression that the market forced them into it. Which, policy makers will always deny. Investors, who believe they are the better forecasters, will continue to take it as a given. Such is the unfortunate legacy of rate setters perpetually afraid to disappoint the market. And if the Fed moves, is it likely other central banks decide their work was done for them? As acting head of the IMF, David Lipton reiterated that “all of Europe’s policy levers need to be ready for use.” And this, oddly enough, came on the back of comments that the IMF baseline is not that the world economy is stalling or headed for recession. The subtext of which seems to be, that we can’t afford to wait and see what solution might be cobbled together on Huawei and tariffs. Despite last week’s CPI number, no one is worried that inflation is making a sudden comeback. And, even if it started to, the Committee, for the moment, can afford not to care. Whether they do 25 basis points or 50, the sum total of what they end up cutting isn’t likely to change. Nothing they do is going to increase the likelihood that they would venture below the zero bound. A folly already embraced elsewhere. As far as unilateral intervention is concerned, you can’t trade off the possibility. Buy a low-delta lottery ticket if the worry is just too great. Now, if you want something that should legitimately be on the radar, keep watching for any news on the debt ceiling issue. Brinkmanship before something is settled is all too real a possibility. But at least this issue will mostly play out publicly. In what may be a realization that bold predictions on the dollar’s demise were a little too aggressive, some forecasts for how low and how quickly it will fall are being scaled back. Or, it’s concern that the momentum for this trade has dissipated. It’s not as if everyone isn’t feeling the bite of the tariff fight. The weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders reports are probably worth watching more closely than usual. For something to watch with rapt interest today, focus on EUR/CHF. It just made an almost two-year low. And that doesn’t argue that it’s the dollar that is in trouble.