Summary of what they think: 1. Growth will slow from 3%+ in 2018 to roughly 1.75% by year-end 2019 due to tighter financial conditions and fading fiscal stimulus. (Standard consensus opinion.) 2. Path of job creation will continue to tighten labor markets and push headline unemployment down to 3% by early 2020. They expect core inflation to reach 2.25% by year-end 2019. 3. They expect four 25-bp Fed rate hikes in 2019, plus the one this December. This is not consensus. The market expects one in 2019 and none after that. The forward curve once the FFR hits 271bps is virtually flat. After December's presumed hike, shorting fed funds futures as a directional trade is no longer the idea that it was. Goldman’s opinion is more on par with the traditional central bankers’ mindset that focuses on the unemployment/inflation trade-off. The basic matter that determines where a central banker identifies on the “dove”/“hawk” spectrum has to do with their beliefs over the validity of this relationship, often expressed as the Phillips curve. A dove typically believes that the relationship is less robust. A hawk normally believes that it’s more robust. Charts ++++Numerical Forecasts (click to enlarge)