There are a lot of speculations that Fed will begin tapering this month. I wonder what are they smoking? :) Below are very informative picture from Reuters. 14 Fed members thought during June meeting that 2015 is appropriate year for beginning "policy firming" and only one thought about 2013. I doubt that their views has changed much since then. Especially, when, in September, 3 act political drama of discussing Syria, budget and debt ceiling between Obama and lawmakers are expecting. 10 year Treasury yield is already 129bp higher than in May. Don't think Fed would like to increase it further right now.