“We believe UBER’s structural advantages are driving increased competitive intensity for LYFT where [long-term] profit targets likely limit its ability to maneuver,” said Erickson. Lyft didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. The stock was down 8.6% to $12.52 in early trading on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.6%. The shares have tumbled by 71% this year as the company gave investors a series of disappointing forecasts amid macro uncertainty. Uber’s stock is down 33% this year. Lyft expects to generate $55 million to $65 million in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization for the third quarter. The midpoint of the range was below the $61.3 million consensus among analysts tracked by FactSet. But Erickson sees a problem with the 2024 target of $1 billion in adjusted Ebitda. While working toward profitability is a good thing, Erickson thinks it also has the potential to limit Lyft’s ability to gain geographic share. The company historically had a strong presence in the west coast, especially in Los Angeles, but Uber is continuing to outperform as it makes more cars available. RBC’s analysis shows Uber seeing shorter pickup times for the first time since May of last year, which could be a challenge for Lyft. About a week ago, UBS analyst Lloyd Walmsley also pointed to headwinds from Uber’s market growth. “Uber not only has a lion’s share of the market, its onboarding process is faster and it offers drivers more earnings opportunities,” Walmsley said. Lyft will publish third-quarter results on Nov. 1. It is expected to generate 6 cents in profit per share on sales of more than $1 billion.